News and Events

TILEC Club IO: Madina Kurmangaliyeva

Agrawal, Gans, and Goldfarb “Exploring the impact of AI: prediction vs judgement”
10:45-11:45, M 1003

Madina will present a recent NBER working paper by Agrawal, Gans, and Goldfarb called “Exploring the Impact of Artificial Intelligence: Prediction versus Judgement.”  The authors try to predict how recent advances in Artificial Intelligence are going to affect demand for human labour. She hopes to see an interesting discussion on the topic. Below, you can find the abstract of the paper:

Click here for the paper

"Based on recent developments in the field of artificial intelligence (AI), we examine what type of human labor will be a substitute versus a complement to emerging technologies. We argue that these recent developments reduce the costs of providing a particular set of tasks – prediction tasks. Prediction about uncertain states of the world is an input into decision-making. We show that prediction allows riskier decisions to be taken and this is its impact on observed productivity although it could also increase the variance of outcomes as well. We consider the role of human judgment in decision-making as prediction technology improves. Judgment is exercised when the objective function for a particular set of decisions cannot be described (i.e., coded). However, we demonstrate that better prediction impacts the returns to different types of judgment in opposite ways. Hence, not all human judgment will be a complement to AI. Finally, we show that humans will delegate some decisions to machines even when the decision would be superior with human input.”


When: 13 February 2019 10:45

End date: 13 February 2019 11:45

Where: Montesquieu building