“Moderate population growth best for maintaining broad prosperity"
The Government Committee on Demographic Developments 2050 has issued a recommendation to the government and the House of Representatives on demographic developments, in particular aging and migration, until at least 2050, held against the light of broad prosperity. Tilburg University's Academic Collaborative Centers contributed to this advice through working visits to Brainport Eindhoven and Parkstad Limburg.
Both the size and composition of the population are changing in the coming period. Cultural diversity is increasing and aging peaks in the next 10 to 15 years. This results in a permanently "older" society toward 2050. In its report Moderate Growth, the Government Committee describes that the aging population will lead to increasing personnel shortages in, for example, healthcare and education. Choices are also needed to provide adequate housing for smaller households in a permanently 'older' society.
Moderate growth offers best prospects
The advice from the Government Committee is not for a scenario of population decline or a scenario of high growth, but rather for moderate growth offering the best perspective for the Dutch population in 2050. This moderate growth of the population to 19 to 20 million people in 2050 can cope with the pressure on the housing market, healthcare, and education, while supporting economic growth. Therefore, political choices are needed regarding the desired scale and forms of migration, with broad prosperity as the perspective for action.
Working visits with Academic Collaborative Centers of Tilburg University
In some regions, the effects of migration and aging are greater than in others. The Government Committee paid working visits to Brainport Eindhoven and Parkstad Limburg together with the Tilburg University’s Academic Collaborative Center for Broad Prosperity. Joks Janssen and Ton Wilthagen were involved and present during the visits on behalf of the Academic Collaborative Centers. The visits provided the Government Committee with insights into the unique challenges and opportunities of the different regions and their responses to demographic developments such as population decline, aging, or migration.
"My proposal to the Government Committee to visit Parkstad Limburg was because there you can see how hard a region works and must work to maintain the broad prosperity in the region amidst all the demographic, economic and political developments."
Ton Wilthagen, Full Professor of Labor Market at Tilburg University
"In Brainport, you can see how economic and demographic growth in times of scarcity calls for making complicated choices. Space, labor, and energy are not in unlimited supply. The report of the Government Committee makes it clear that the national government can and must support the region more robustly in this regard."
Joks Janssen, Professor of Practice 'Broad Prosperity in the region' at Tilburg University
A broad prosperity perspective
What does this important advice evoke? Joks Janssen emphasizes that the main issue is what kind of economy we want to be in 2050. "Demographic growth is a consequence of migration flows. And these are—in part—a consequence of economic choices, for example, to give ample space to sectors that depend on cheap labor. A broad prosperity perspective can help the central government and region to make more balanced choices in this towards the future."
Broad prosperity and Tilburg University
A broad perspective of prosperity, and the premises of justice and equity, is in Tilburg University's DNA. For that reason, broad prosperity is one of the university's important strategic themes. Via academic collaborative centers and similar initiatives, Tilburg University uses its expertise to contribute in a practical manner to strengthening broad prosperity.